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Monday, December 19, 2011

Iran, The Real Problem, It's Not Nuclear, It's Economic

    With the title of this it is my obligation to prove I am right.  Some may argue with me, but I do not think even Iran would be stupid or crazy enough to commit national suicide.  Even if they have a bomb they have to be smart enough to know that if they were to use it, it would be the end of Iran as a nation.  My feeling is that it is more of an  "Old West Mindset."  They live in a bad neighborhood and packing a piece is one way to feel safer. In the old west it felt good to know the sheriff was around, but having self protection made one feel safer.  If you lived in hostile territory, knowing Cavalry was near helped.  However if your group of people were not liked by the Cavalry you kind of wondered if they would really come and help you.
     The history of the United States and Iran are full of problems and irritants that might make Iran question if the world's police force (USA) would act in their national interest.  With the USA having troops in countries on two of their borders and a fully armed Naval Force off of their coasts. It might be understandable if they were or are a little nervous.
      At this point a little history might help shed some light.  During World War II the United States and Britain  used an overland route through Iran to get military supplies to the Soviet Union who at that time was our ally.  Britain had dominated the area and what the Iranian concerns were did not matter to the parties involved.  This was all fine and dandy till the end of the war and Russia getting their own nuclear bomb.  After the war ended Britain became unhappy with the democratically elected government of Iran.  They felt the government was a little to cozy with the Russians.  Britain came up with a plan to alter things and try to make things more favorable to themselves.  They tried to get the United States to help them but the Truman Administration said they were not interested.   When Truman left office they asked the Eisenhower Administration and they agreed to help.  This was the first screw up.  Letting Britain lead us into anything.  We came here to get out from under their control.  We got sucked into the Middle East in the late 1700's because of our relationship or lack of relationship to England.  Till the Revolutionary War our merchant ships were protected on the high seas by Britain, but after the war started and our victory.  Britain no longer protected our ships.  Which is how we came to have a Constitution.  A neat story, but a long one.  Time to get back on track.
     The United States helped Britain overthrow the democratically elected government of Iran in 1953 to put a more pro western government in power. Britain was worried that the original Iranian government was to friendly with the Russians. Britain in turn felt this threatened their oil holdings in the Middle East.
      In 1979 a bunch of Iranian students overthrew the American Embassy and held the occupants hostage for almost 400 days. They felt it was a payback for overthrowing their government.  They turned the hostages loose the day Ronald Reagan came into office.  Needless to say this made for hostile relationships between the two countries.  The Shah of Iran was also kicked out of the country when the Muslim revolution took power.  The relationship has been hostile every since that time.  America also supported Iraq and its leader Saddam Hussein in a war with Iran from 1980 to 1988. Which amounted to payback for the payback. In the period of 1985 to 1987 the Reagan Administration was found to be involved in the Iran Contra Affair the CIA was selling arms to Iran to fund a war in Central America.  So in essence we were selling guns to both sides, which is a real Christian thing to do I suppose.  I had intended to say that the United States was and is a peace loving nation.  However when I ran the timeline.  I found since 1776 the United States has been in a war or occupying some country, some where all but eleven years out of 235 we have been around.  So I backed off on that statement.
     At some point after the Iraq-Iran war ended we severed ties or quit supporting Iraq.  Saddam must have felt the United States would not stop him if he invaded Kuwait and took their oil.  He was wrong and felt the full force of the United States military.  Iraq also received sanctions and was under some kind of sanctions right up to the start of the war in Iraq.  Saddam Hussein found a way to circumvent some of the pressure of the sanctions by going to the United Nations and getting permission to sell his oil for Euros instead of dollars so he would not lose so much money when making currency exchanges.  This is what led to his ultimate downfall.   He messed with the dollar.  For more info on how all that came about and why I encourage you to read my 4/15/11 blog on WMD's and you will have a better understanding.  The first thing the USA did after defeating Iraq was put their oil back on the dollar.
     Which brings me to my  final point. Iran is still selling their oil for Euros as are many of the "Axis of Evil" nations.  Taking their oil off of the dollar and selling it on world markets has made the dollar much weaker and not quite so "almighty."  That is the real reason the USA is so uptight about Iran's nuclear program.  They want to sell it as a WMD which it truly is, but like I said at the start.  Is Iran really going to commit national suicide.  Sure they would love to take out Israel.  That can be averted by simply making it clear that any attack on Israel will be considered the same as an attack on the United States of American and will be retaliated against the same as if it was American soil.  I may be naive, but I do understand why Iran does not trust the United States.
       When you consider almost half of America was not born till after the events mentioned in this article.  It is understandable how the government can dupe the public into thinking they are truly concerned about nuclear weapons.  The reality says that it is not really and issue to worry about.  If I was going to worry about nuclear weapons it would be the ones that already exist in Pakistan with a terrorist friendly government.  The news today shook the dice in Korea and who know where that will go.  Hopefully some of the facts I put in here will help Americans make sound decisions.  Maybe if we just apologized to Iran for overthrowing their government and tried to back it up with "some act of Christian friendship" the situation would defuse itself.  It won't happen as long as we have an in your face attitude though.  The whole Middle East is a powder keg waiting to blow. What happens when the Arab Spring hits Saudi Arabia and takes their oil out of the equation.  Then we have a problem.  Especially if the USA does not start moving toward an energy independent position.

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